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Steel market price forecast on December 16

Date:Dec 16,2020

Rebar: On December 15, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous transaction. In order to speed up the pace of shipments yesterday, spot traders mostly sold at low prices, but transactions performed poorly. In the afternoon, as futures rebounded, low prices in some areas rebounded, and transactions performed generally. At present, despite the sharp rebound in intraday futures, terminal purchase enthusiasm is still not good. Taking into account the recent large-scale cooling in most regions, demand resilience is slightly insufficient, and the current spot price is still a certain amount away from winter storage expectations. Therefore, domestic construction steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Hot-rolled coil: On December 15, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 4470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday’s early morning spot market sentiment on the sidelines was strong, merchants’ quotations fell slightly, and market transactions were generally weak. The futures market rebounded in the afternoon, and the spot market mentality improved slightly. Some market prices rose slightly. Low-priced resources were traded well, but high-priced transactions were difficult. The short-term market fear is strong, and prices need to be adjusted after the price continues to rise. However, the current market inventory is still not accumulated, merchants have little pressure on shipments, and there is still a certain degree of resilience in terminal demand, so the room for price drops is also limited. . It is expected that today's hot-rolled coil prices will remain volatile.

 

Cold rolled coil: On December 15, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 5490 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a fundamental perspective, yesterday’s morning market transactions showed signs of weakening, but market transactions gradually improved in the afternoon; the ex-factory price of steel mills and the proportion of orders available were not very high, which further led to the trend of tight market resources not changing; feedback from traders, The downstream is accepting high-priced resources one after another, and mainly uses and purchases. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic cold-rolled prices will run strongly today.

 

Plate: On December 15th, the average price of 20mm general-purpose plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4305 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the support of raw materials, steel mills have a strong willingness to uphold prices, coupled with low overall social inventories, merchants are not willing to drop prices. Yesterday's overall transaction was not good. Due to lack of resources and incomplete specifications in some areas, transactions were significantly reduced. It is understood that due to the recent loosening of market prices, the enthusiasm for downstream purchases is obviously not as good as that in the previous period, mainly on-demand purchases, and the bullish mentality is insufficient. In addition, the northern market has entered the winter, and the severe cold has hindered the start of the later period, and the demand has also declined. On the whole, although raw materials support and low inventories support prices, demand is weak. It is expected that today's domestic plate prices will be dominated by consolidation.

 

Imported ore: On December 15, the imported iron ore market rose. Yesterday, Qingdao Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported RMB 1,022/ton, up 8 RMB/ton from the previous trading day; 62.5% PB lump ore reported RMB 1,125/ton, up 16 RMB/ton from the previous trading day.

 

Coke: On December 15, the domestic coke market was on the strong side, and some steel mills have accepted the ninth round of coke price increases. On the supply side, the overcapacity reduction policy has been further promoted, coke supply is still tight, and coke companies have good sales; on the demand side, blast furnaces have started at a high level, and some steel mills have been affected by environmental protection and transportation factors. On the whole, Jiao Qi is more optimistic about the market outlook, and it is expected that the ninth round of promotion will be fully implemented.

 

Scrap steel: On December 15th, the scrap steel market continued to perform strongly. The price adjustment of steel mills was mainly to increase, and the market mentality was general. The mainstream steel mills' scrap prices remained stable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the arrival of mainstream steel mills is gradually decreasing, market resources are tight, and the supply and demand of the scrap market are tightly balanced. It is expected that scrap prices will remain stable today.

TypeInfo: Trade news

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