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Steel market price forecast on December 21

Date:Dec 21,2020

Rebar: On December 20, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,231 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. Last week, the black system disk continued to rise, and terminal demand did not show significant shrinkage. The shortage of resource specifications for steel mills in various regions, especially in East China, continued to occur. It is expected that the proportion of steel mills to resume production this week will increase slightly, and the overall supply of rebar will remain between 3.45-3.5 million tons. At present, the price of raw materials continues to be at a high level, and the price is supported by cost. However, as the price has risen sharply again and as the winter storage time is gradually approaching, the market fear of heights is difficult to avoid, and the mentality is still more cautious. The price of construction steel is expected to run at a high level this week.

 

Hot-rolled coils: On December 20, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,585 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. The decline in market inventory has slowed down with the decline in consumption, and the recent shipment volume has risen to a certain extent, and the pressure on the market has increased compared with before. At present, the willingness of merchants to make high-level shipments has been strengthened, and there has been a reduction in orders for January. From the perspective of transactions, the situation of forced purchases by the downstream has appeared. In the short term, support still exists, but the continuity of passive consumption is relatively poor. Hot coil spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level this week.

 

Cold rolled coil: On December 20, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 5,606 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of fundamentals, cold-rolled production was basically the same last week, while the factory, warehouse and social warehouse continued to decline. After Baosteel's cold products, some steel mills have increased their prices sharply, and the cost range has been relatively large, and market confidence has been boosted. According to feedback from merchants, due to the continuously rising spot prices, some downstream companies are facing increasing cost pressures. Wait and see the state of waiting for purchases, last week's high transaction was weak; however, given the low inventory level and higher cost support, the market is not willing to sell at low prices, and prices are still strong and even continue to rise. On the whole, it is expected that the national cold rolling will continue to increase in the short term.

 

Plate: On December 20, the average 20mm plate in 24 major cities across the country was 4399 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. Market profitability is relatively concentrated, and there will be more actions to lock in existing profits as soon as possible in the short term, and there will be a small impact on prices in stages. The rise of steel mills is more due to high costs and passive pull-ups. The room for continued upward price adjustments after the order is completed will also be narrowed. The overall market atmosphere in the short-term is still strong, and prices are expected to continue to operate at a high level.

 

Imported ore: On December 20, 61.5% of Australian PB fines in Qingdao Port reported RMB 1081/ton, an increase of RMB 48/ton on a weekly basis. Last week, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 85.29%, an increase of 0.52% from the previous week; Mysteel’s 45 ports nationwide imported iron ore inventory of 124.0445 million tons, an increase of 2.01.25 million tons from last week.

 

Coke: On December 20, the domestic coke market stabilized temporarily after rising. In terms of supply, some coking companies in Shanxi and Hebei still have plans to reduce production capacity. At the same time, the new capacity has not been fully released. The coke supply gap still exists, and the coking companies have almost no inventory in their factories. In terms of demand, the steel mills are operating at a high level as a whole. Considering that rain and snow may increase in the later period, and the tightness of train wagons may affect transportation, active replenishment is still the main focus. On the whole, steel mills and traders are still actively purchasing. Considering that the coke market is temporarily in a tight balance, the market is still optimistic. It is expected that the coke market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.

 

Scrap steel: On December 20th, the scrap steel market was operating within a narrow range. The price adjustment steel mills rose more and fell less. The mainstream steel mill scrap prices were temporarily operating stably. The scrap purchase price of Rizhao Steel Plant was raised by RMB 50/ton in the end. The current scrap market resources are still tight, and traders cannot sell goods. At the same time, the demand for winter storage of scrap from steel mills is relatively large. In addition, driven by the strong black system, scrap prices are likely to rise but never fall. It is expected that scrap prices will continue to run strongly in the short term.

TypeInfo: Trade news

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